人民币升值对中国钢铁行业影响的CGE研究  

A CGE Analysis of RMB Appreciation Effects on China Steel Industry

作　　者：胡宗义[1] 张葆君[1] 刘亦文[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学统计学院,湖南长沙410079

出　　处：《财经理论与实践》2009年第2期28-31,共4页The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学规划项目(08JA790037)

摘　　要：运用中国动态可计算一般均衡模型-MCHUGE模型,改变进口溢价和出口转换变量,控制出口产品流通成本,研究人民币升值对中国钢铁行业的影响表明:钢铁行业是人民币升值的受益产业;人民币的一次性大幅升值能显著地刺激钢铁行业产能扩张、投资增加和就业增长;人民币的渐进式升值则能减少钢铁行业的进出口波动。This paper explores a Chinese dynamic general equilibrium （CGE） model--MCHUGE model to measure the influence of China＇s steel industry exerted by RMB appreciation by changing import premium, export shifter and export margin. Simulation results show that steel industry is a winning industry after RMB appreciation; sharp increase in RMB exchange rate can stimulate the activity level, capital stock and employment growth, while a mild progressive appreciation shall reduce the fluctuate in export and import of steel industry.

关 键 词：人民币升值 钢铁产业 CGE模型 MCHUGE模型 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]