温室气体稳定浓度情景下中国地区温度和降水变化  

Changes in Surface Air Temperature and Precipitation Over China Under the Stabilization Scenario of Greenhouse Gas

作　　者：徐敏[1,2] 罗勇[2] 徐影[2] 郭品文[1] 徐经纬[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学,南京210044 [2]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2009年第2期79-84,共6页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划(973计划)项目(2006CB403707);中国气象局2008年气候变化专项(CCSF2008-18)资助

摘　　要：利用参与IPCC第四次评估报告(AR4)的多个全球气候系统模式的输出结果,着重分析了2101—2198年温室气体浓度稳定在720mL/m3和550mL/m3水平时(S720和S550情景),中国地区地表温度与降水的时空变化特征。结果表明:1)当温室气体浓度稳定不变时,22世纪中国地表温度仍将呈上升趋势,增温幅度为0.4℃/100a,但升温趋势平缓,幅度明显小于SRESA1B(中等排放)和B1(低排放)情景,冬、春季增温显著且高纬地区增温明显大于低纬地区,夏、秋季次之,因此季节间的温差将会变小;2)S720(S550)情景下年平均降水增加幅度基本稳定在11%(8%)左右,冬季降水增加显著,且增幅从南向北逐渐增大,春季次之,夏、秋季大部分地区降水将减少10%～30%。Using the output of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models participating in the AR4 of IPCC, this paper has studied the spatio-temporal characteristics of surface air temperature and precipitation in China when the greenhouse gases （GHGs） concentration stabilizes at levels of 550 and 720 mL/m3 for nearly a century （2101- 2 198）. The results show that the temperature＇s wanning rate is 0.4 ℃/100a under the two stabilization scenarios, in addition, the wanning tendency is much smaller than those under the SRES A1B and B 1 scenarios. Warming is most remarkable in winter and spring, with wanning amplitude becoming generally greater from low latitudes toward high latitudes, and next in summer and autumn, which leads to the reduction in temperature differences between seasons. Although the annual mean precipitation still increases when the GHGs concentration stabilizes, the increasing amplitude tends to be stable at 11% （720 mL/m3） and 8% （550 mL/m3）, respectively. The increase in winter precipitation is more apparent than in other seasons; the increase also becomes larger from low latitudes toward high latitudes. The summer and autumn precipitation decreases 10%-30% in most areas of China.

关 键 词：温室气体 稳定浓度 温室气体排放情景 温度 降水 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]