中国通货膨胀合理区间定位方法的探讨  

Methods in Seeking a Reasonable Range for China's Inflation Rate

作　　者：郭德焐[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行荆州市中心支行,湖北荆州434000

出　　处：《上海金融》2009年第3期44-47,共4页Shanghai Finance

摘　　要：本文结合中国实际,综合运用菲利普斯曲线、奥肯定律、近似理性理论确定中国通货膨胀合理区间。当前我国还不太可能实行通货膨胀目标制,但建立控制通货膨胀的合理区间还是比较现实的选择。合理区间对于宏观调控具有重要的参考价值:通货膨胀率在合理区间内,政府可以通过适度扩张的货币政策来提高通货膨胀率,促进经济增长和充分就业的实现;超过合理区间的阀值就应采取有效的宏观调控措施抑制通货膨胀。The article applies Philips Curve, Okun＇s rule and near-rational theory to China＇s reality, and points out that putting a reasonable inflation rate range is a realistic choice. A reasonable range is of important reference to macro management. Within this range, the government could use moderately expansive monetary policy to raise inflation rate in order to advance economic growth and employment. While inflation rate goes beyond this range, the goverument could use measures to hold it back.

关 键 词：通货膨胀 合理区间 定位方法 实证检验 

分 类 号：F820[经济管理—财政学]