基于Fuzzy AHP的危险货物运输风险评估与预警  

Risk evaluation and early warning for hazardous material transportation based on Fuzzy AHP

作　　者：尚鸿雁[1,2] 董千里[1] 王旭坪[3] 刘小东 

机构地区：[1]长安大学经济与管理学院,陕西西安710064 [2]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100190 [3]大连理工大学系统工程研究所,辽宁大连116023 [4]香港经贸管理学院商学院

出　　处：《长安大学学报（社会科学版）》2009年第1期21-27,共7页Journal of Chang'an University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70671014);教育部科学技术研究重点项目(03052)

摘　　要：为降低危险货物运输风险和事故概率,选取人的不安全行为、危险货物及其装载设备的不安全状态、环境的脆弱性和不安全状态3个方面的因素作为研究对象,分析它们之间风险构成关系及其相互作用,并把作为主要事故原因的人在管理环节上造成的疏漏列为主要评价因素,基于Fuzzy AHP法,构建了"人—物—环"危险货物运输风险预警评价指标体系和模糊综合评价模型以及空间三维框架模型,对不同程度的风险状态进行分级预警。实例研究表明,综合评价模型是针对"人—物—环"风险预警评价指标因素的非定量性进行模糊综合评判的有效工具。Risk evaluation and early warning for hazardous material transportation are important means in decreasing risk and accident probability. In this paper, three factors such as the unsafe behaviors of people, the unsafe statuses of hazardous materials and their loading equipment, the frangibility and the unsafe conditions of environment are discussed. The index system and fuzzy comprehensive assessment model of the risk assessment and early warning are established based on analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. In order to fulfill early warning according to different risk ranks, each risk state has been analyzed through a 3-dimension frame model. The sample study shows that various factors, which is related to hazardous materials transportation, have been contained and described in this index system, and security state of the transporting enterprise has been evaluated objectively and truly by this assessment model.

关 键 词：FUZZY AHP 危险货物运输 风险评估 预警 

分 类 号：U169.49[交通运输工程]