广州市主要断层的危险性评价  

Seismic Hazard Assessment of Major Faults in Guangzhou City

作　　者：周庆[1] 冉洪流[1] 吴业彪[2] 陈连旺[3] 李红[4] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地质研究所,北京100029 [2]广东省地震局,广州510070 [3]中国地震局地壳应力研究所,北京100085 [4]北京市地震局,北京100080

出　　处：《震灾防御技术》2009年第1期58-68,共11页Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention

基　　金：中国地震区划图编制项目(2007-2010);中国地震活断层探测技术系统项目(1-4-19-11)共同资助

摘　　要：本文在鉴定广州-从化断裂、瘦狗岭断裂和珠江口断裂活动性的基础上,通过分析区域地球动力学环境、地震活动性及历史地震资料等,估计了上述3条主要断层未来可能发生的最大地震震级为6.0≤M<6.5。同时,根据断层活动的三维有限元数值模拟、区域中强地震发生与断裂的关系以及目标区现代小震活动分布特点,判断出未来最大地震的发震部位,即最易发生地震的地区为广州-从化断裂与瘦狗岭断裂的交汇区。Based on the study of fault activity, regional geodynamics, seismic activity and historical earthquake records, potential earthquake risk with magnitude 6.0≤M〈6.5 has been evaluated in Guangzhou city. In order to determine the potential source where strong earthquakes will occur, we set up a 3-D finite element model, and analyze the relationship between strong earthquake and fault distribution and present-day seismicity. Stress accumulative rate on the surface of Guangzhou-Conghua fault , Shou-Gouling fault and Zhu-jiangkou fault are 0.0428-0.0437bar/a, 0.0063-0.0138bar/a and 0.0059bar/a respectively. Our results suggest that the junction area where Guangzhou-Conghua fault meet Shou-Gouling fault is the place with the highest probability for occurrence of strong earthquake.

关 键 词：断层危险性评价 广州-从化断裂 瘦狗岭断裂 珠江口断裂 三维有限元模型 

分 类 号：P315.2[天文地球—地震学]