基于DUEM模型的兰州市城市土地利用变化  

Simulating urban land use changes in Lanzhou City with DUEM Model

作　　者：徐昔保[1] 杨桂山[1] 张建明[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,江苏南京210008 [2]兰州大学资源环境学院,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2009年第2期289-295,共7页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2005CB422001);国家自然科学基金青年基金(40501077)资助

摘　　要：根据兰州市1995年的1:5万土地利用现状图、2001年1:4 000彩红外航片、2005年的Landsat TM遥感影像、1:5万DEM和2001-2010年城市总体规划等数据资料,结合GIS和DUEM模型,设计了两种不同情景模拟分析了兰州市城市土地利用变化。研究结果表明:兰州市城市土地利用增长集中在城关区雁滩、七里河区马滩和崔家大滩、安宁区安宁堡乡、沙井驿乡、崔家庄和迎门滩等地区;且兰州市城市土地利用变化趋势深受城市总体规划和政府政策等因素影响。同时也发现DUEM模型在实际应用中存在一定的局限性。This paper integrated GIS and DUEM model to simulate urban land use changes in Lanzhou City, Gansu Province,China. The historical data included 1：50 000 land use map of 1995, DEM and urban planning map of 2001 -2010, 1：4 000 aerial photos of 2001 and Landsat TM of 2005. Two different scenarios were designed to explore the influences of policy and plans on its land use changes： the first scenario was assumed as that the future land use change trend would be the continuance of the historical land use changes from 1995 to 2005, projected with the coefficients derived from the calibration; the second scenario considered policy, urban planning and fiveyear-plan synthetically, projected with revised coefficients corresponding to its plans and polices. Predictions of 2010, 2015 and 2020 under the two different scenarios were made and evaluated. It can be concluded that： （ 1 ） Urban land use growth trend in Lanzhou would be fairly fast, and the trend under the second scenario would be rather faster; （2） Urban land use growth would mainly focus on Anningbao, Shajingyi, Cuijiazhuang and Yingmentan of Anning District, Cuijiadatan and Matan of Qilihe District, and Yantan of Chengguan District ; （3） The influences of policy and urban planning would lay great emphasis on its urban land use change; （4） Prediction under the second scenario would be closer to the real land use changes and policy-makers＇ good will, but there would be less space for sustainable development after 2020 without strict control of urban sprawl. It is a serious challenge and warning for future urban development. The application of DUEM model in Lanzhou has testified its suitability in China, whereas there are some disadvantages, such as coarse land use classification and hard calibration, which need to be further explored in the future.

关 键 词：DUEM模型 城市土地利用 变化 兰州市 

分 类 号：F293.2[经济管理—国民经济] F224