基于模糊物元分析的核事故应急防护措施风险评价模型  

RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR NUCLEAR ACCIDENT EMERGENCY PROTECTION COUNTERMEASURE BASED ON FUZZY MATTER-ELEMENT ANALYSIS

作　　者：辛晶[1] 汤华清[1] 张颖花[1] 张丽敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民武装警察部队学院消防指挥系,河北廊坊065000

出　　处：《辐射防护》2009年第2期96-100,共5页Radiation Protection

摘　　要：在模糊物元分析的基础上,结合模糊集合理论和欧氏贴近度概念,建立了核事故应急防护措施风险评价的模糊物元模型。引用信息熵和专家打分方法综合确定评价指标的权重,不仅充分利用了评价指标本身的数据,而且有效地避免了专家打分确定权重的主观随意性。实例应用计算的结果表明,该模型用于评价核事故应急防护措施的风险是可行的,为核事故应急防护措施的最优化提供了一种有效的分析方法和决策依据。A risk assessment model of nuclear accident emergency protection countermeasure based on fuzzy matter-element analysis and Euclid approach degree is proposed in the paper. The weight of assessed index is determined by information entropy and the scoring by experts, which could not only make full use of the inherent information of the indexes adequately, but reduce subjective assumption in the course of assessment effectively. The applied result shows that it is reasonable that the model is adopted to make risk assessment for nuclear accident emergency protective countermeasure, and it could be a kind of effective analytical method and decision making basis to choose the optimum protection countermeasure.

关 键 词：核事故应急 防护措施 风险评价 模糊物元模型 欧氏贴近度 权重 

分 类 号：TL364.4[核科学技术—核技术及应用]