中国居民消费需求不足原因研究--基于中国城乡分省数据  

A Study of Inadequate Consumer Demand among Chinese Residents-Based on Data for Urban and Rural Areas in Different Provinces

作　　者：方福前[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院教授,北京100872

出　　处：《中国社会科学》2009年第2期68-82,共15页Social Sciences in China

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“西方经济学‘中国化’研究”(批准号05BJL047);中国人民大学“985工程”中国经济研究哲学社会科学创新基地子课题“西方经济学‘中国化’与中国经济学的创新和发展”的成果之一

摘　　要：运用1995—2005年中国除西藏和台湾外30个省、自治区和直辖市城乡面板数据,建立随机效应模型对中国城乡居民消费需求的影响因素分别进行的计量结果发现:中国居民人均可支配收入与人均消费支出高度相关,且在这11年里中国城乡居民消费函数相对稳定;医疗、教育和住房体制改革对城乡居民消费需求的影响是不同的;一些流行的观点不能得到计量结果的支持。在这个发现的基础上,进一步运用1992—2004年中国的资金流量表(实物交易)数据,解释了1997—1998年以来中国居民消费需求持续低迷的原因之一:在国民收入分配和再分配过程中,政府在总收入和可支配收入中占有的份额越来越大,而居民占有的份额不断下降。Using panel data from both urban and rural areas in China's thirty provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities (Tibet excluded) from 1995 to 2005 and applying the random effects model,we conducted a quantitative analysis of factors in? uencing urban and rural consumer demand. The fi ndings show the per capita disposable income of Chinese residents is highly correlated with their per capita consumption expenditure and the consumption function of urban and rural residents was relatively stable over the eleven years under study. On the basis of these fi ndings,this paper further makes use of data in China's funds ? ow statements (physical transactions) from 1992 to 2004 to explain one of the reasons for the continuing under-consumption since 1997-1998; that is,in the course of national income distribution and redistribution the government has gained an ever increasing share of total and disposable income while the share of Chinese residents shows a continuous decline.

关 键 词：随机效应模型 中国居民消费 居民收入 政府收入 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济]