灰色系统理论在煤矿开采沉降量预测中的应用  

Application of grey system theory in prediction of settlement quantity in coal mine exploitation

作　　者：罗文柯[1] 施式亮[1] 李东明 周赞祥 

机构地区：[1]湖南科技大学能源与安全工程学院,湖南湘潭411201 [2]湖南省煤业集团公司湘潭矿业公司,湖南湘潭411231 [3]金竹山矿业公司土珠煤矿,湖南冷水江417501

出　　处：《矿业工程研究》2009年第1期11-14,共4页Mineral Engineering Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50774033;50274060);教育部科学技术研究项目(206100);国家安全生产监督管理总局安全生产科技发展计划项目(08-203;06-394;03-103);湖南省自然科学基金资助项目(06JJ2069);湖南省安全生产监督管理局重点项目(HN08-19);湖南省教育科学"十一五"规划课题(XJY08BGD027)

摘　　要：以预测煤矿开采而引起的地表高程的损失为目的,通过灰色系统理论的建模、关联度分析和残差辨识为基础,建立了灰色理论预测模型,并将该模型GM(1,1)应用到金竹山矿业公司土珠煤矿的地表沉降量的预测分析中,对该矿2007年1～10月的地表高程损失量进行了灰色生成,建立了灰色预测系统;根据残差检验结果,对照精度检验等级表可以看出,灰色系统模型预测的土珠煤矿的地表沉降量与其实际测量的值拟合度高,预测结果正确可靠,反应了因地下煤矿开采而引起地表建筑物的毁损与高程的降低,对煤矿的复垦规划提供了重要参考依据.For the purpose of forecasting the losing of surface elevation caused by coal mine exploitation, on the basis of grey system theory modeling, association analysis and residual identification, the grey theory prediction model is built up. The model GM （1, 1） is applied in prediction analysis of ground settlement in Tuzhu Coal Mine ofJin Zhushan Mining Company, The losing of surface elevation from 1- 10 months in Year 2007 is generated and grey prediction system is built up. According to examination result of residual and check against the accuracy examination grade table, it indicates that the fitting degree of ground settlement in Tuzhu Coal Mine that is forecasted by grey system model, the actual value is high and the prediction result is correct and credible. Derogation of earth＇s surface building caused by the un elevation are reflected and an important reference frame is provided to the reclamation derground coal mining and the lower of programming of coal mine.

关 键 词：灰色理论 地表沉降 预测 GM(1 1)模型 

分 类 号：TD173[矿业工程—矿山地质测量]