中国东部季风区1961年～2006年年平均气温变化特征  

The Change of Annual Mean Temperature in Monsoon Area of East China

作　　者：陈少勇[1,2] 王劲松[1] 石圆圆[2] 郭忠祥[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,兰州730020 [2]白银市气象局,白银730900

出　　处：《资源科学》2009年第3期462-471,共10页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(编号:40775057)。

摘　　要：利用中国东部季风区375个测站的1961年～2006年历年平均地面气温资料,采用线性趋势分析、多项式拟合、EOF、REOF、Mann-Kendall、滑动t-检验、子波分析和功率谱分析等方法,分析了46年季风区年平均气温对气候变暖的响应。结果表明:①中国东部季风区近46年增温率0.24℃/10年,从1971年开始气温呈增加趋势,1987年有一次显著突变;②季风区年平均气温标准差和相对变率分布较均匀;③大多数区域气温变化有明显上升趋势,增温率从南向北增大,增温不显著的区域主要在西南地区;④用EOF将该区年平均气温异常分为全区一致型、准南北差异型、中间型3种常见分布模态,用REOF将该区细分为季风北部区、南部区、中部区和云贵高原区4个分区;⑤全区性的异常偏热年,大部分出现在1990年以后,气温异常变化存在5年左右的年际周期;⑥年平均气温的转折和突变先从云贵高原开始,过10年左右南、北部转型,再过10年左右是中部转型;⑦对气温变化的机理进行了初步分析。Using the mean surface temperature data over the past 46 years （1961-2006）from 375 stations in the monsoon area of east China and methods of linear regression analysis, multinomial fitting, EOF, REOF, Mann-Kendall, Glide T-examination, Wavelet analysis and power spectrum analysis etc., we analyzed the influence of climate warming upon the annual mean temperature in the monsoon area of east China. The results showed that： 1 ） the incalescence rate over the 46 years in the monsoon area of east China was 0.24℃/10a. The temperature began climbing in 1971 and went on rising at a higher degree after 1984. With a remarkable increase in 1987, the temperature reached a new warmer period; 2） The standard deviation and relative variability of variation of annual mean temperature in the monsoon area of east China were well-distributed; 3） The change of temperature in most part of the region took on an obvious upward trend. The incalescence rate increased from south to north. The moderately warmer areas were mostly distributed in Midwest of Henan Province and passed through the Qinling Mountains southward to east of Sichuan, Chongqing and part of Yunnan-Kweichow Plateau. The annual mean temperature even showed a remarkable downtrend in part of eastern Sichuan and Yunnan Province. It appeared that there was asynchronism between climate change in southwest China and global warming; 4）With the EOF method, we categorized the abnormities of annual mean temperature in the monsoon area of east China into three common distributive modes： the all area unanimous model, the quosi north and south difference model and the middle model. With the REOF method, we subdivided the area into 4 subareas： The south monsoon area, the north monsoon area, the middle monsoon area and the Yunnan plateau area; 5） Of all areas, top-ten years with warmer tempertatures were all in or after 1990＇s. There was an inter-annual cycle of roughly 5 years on exceptional changes of temperature. The temporal changes of air temperature had 3 l

关 键 词：中国 季风区 年平均气温 气候变暖 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S161.22[农业科学—农业气象学]