增长的路径依赖与北京奥运会经济低谷效应分析  

Analysis on "Valley Effect" of Beijing Olympics——A Study in the View of Path Dependence of Economic Growth

作　　者：张自如[1] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学体育经济与管理学院,经济学博士北京100081

出　　处：《体育与科学》2009年第2期15-17,共3页Sports & Science

摘　　要：奥运会的举办可以促进主办城市的经济发展,也可能导致奥运会后经济低谷效应。研究表明,北京的经济发展主要源于内生性增长,经济增长存在明显的路径依赖,奥运会的举办没有改变原有的发展路径。通过对投资、消费以及奥运相关产业发展态势的实证分析发现,内生性增长是北京经济增长基本模式,北京奥运会后将不会发生经济低谷效应,经济运行的轨迹不会发生改变。Beijing＇s winning bid to host the Olympics will bring tremendous economic benefits to the city. And sometimes, after holding the Olympics, the host city shows a certain stage of the ＂ Valley Effect＂. Research shows that the development of Beijing＇s economy due to endogenous growth, and there is a clear path dependence. Olympics can not change the original path of devel- opment. Through empirical analysis on the trends of investment, consumption and Olympic--related industries＇ development, we find that endogenous growth is the basic pattern of economic growth in Beijing, and there will not be ＂Valley Effect＂ of economy, and Beijing＇s economy will be maintain the original path of economic development.

关 键 词：奥运经济 内生性增长 路径依赖 经济低谷效应 

分 类 号：G811.21[文化科学—体育学]