城市防震减灾能力评价中的可接受风险研究  

Research on acceptable risk level for the urban capacity of earthquake disaster prevention and reduction

作　　者：刘莉 谢礼立[2,3] 葛红 

机构地区：[1]山东省临沂市地震局,山东临沂250014 [2]中国地震局工程力学研究所,黑龙江哈尔滨150080 [3]哈尔滨工业大学土木工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150080

出　　处：《世界地震工程》2009年第1期82-87,共6页World Earthquake Engineering

基　　金：山东省地震局博士生基金项目;国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(编号2007CB714205)

摘　　要：搜集国内外破坏性地震的人员伤亡数据及1985年以来国内其他自然灾害(如水灾、台风等)和人为灾害(火灾、交通事故等)引起的非正常死亡情况的相关资料,结合专家调查问卷的统计结果,采用可接受风险研究中的F-N曲线和ALARP准则,统计分析了各类灾害的可接受生命风险指标,从而建议了地震人员伤亡的风险值。利用该风险标准作为评价城市防震减灾能力的控制性指标,指导决策者对公众生命风险进行合理的选择,以获得良好的社会效果。结果表明,风险分析的定量表示方法可以应用到城市防震减灾能力的评估中,并可以作为评价城市防震减灾能力强弱的判断标准。The number of the fatalities caused by various types of disasters are collected, which includes the number of the fatalities caused by the destructive earthquake at home and abroad, and the number of the fatalities caused by the natural disasters （floods, typhoons, etc. ） and man- made disasters （fires, traffic accidents, etc. ） have also been included since 1985. The paper mainly defines the acceptable risk levels according to risk-prevention meas- ures, which are included failure probability and the consequences of failure measure, such as human casualty and economic loss, etc. It has discussed the methods to use ALARP principle and F-N curve combined with the statistical result of the experts＇questionnaires so as to determine the acceptable risk and their applications in the urban capacity of earthquake disaster prevention and reduction. Excellent social benefits are achieved by using the value of acceptable risk levels as a control index for evaluation of the urban capacity of earthquake disaster prevention and reduction.The results show that urban acceptable level of earthquake risk is the evaluation criterion of the urban capacity of earthquake disaster prevention and reduction and the basis for decision-making in risk management.

关 键 词：城市防震减灾能力 风险管理 可接受风险 F-N曲线 ALARP准则 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]