电力用户从发电商购电定价的双边贝叶斯动态博弈学习模型  被引量:9

Bayesian learning model based dynamic game for pricing between power consumers and generators

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作  者:谭忠富[1] 柏慧[1] 李莉[1] 严菲[1] 

机构地区:[1]华北电力大学电力经济研究所,北京102206

出  处:《华东电力》2009年第3期384-388,共5页East China Electric Power

基  金:国家自然科学基金项目(70571023;70373017);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-06-02-08);北京哲学社会科学规划项目(06BaJG102)联合资助

摘  要:电力用户从发电商直接购电是打破电力垄断经营过程的前奏。采用序贯博弈理论设计二者的交易机制,引入贝叶斯学习模型以提高发电商和用户的学习能力。通过发电商与电力用户的多轮报价,彼此逐轮更新对对方保留价格的认识,以更精确的预期修正报价,改进自身博弈效用,提高双方博弈过程的效率。算例表明发电商和大用户采用贝叶斯学习模型进行博弈具有有效性。The direct electricity purchasing by the large power consumer from the generator is the prelude of electricity monopoly operation breaking. In this paper, the sequential game theory was used to design the trading mechanism between the two sides, and the Bayesian learning model was introduced to enhance the two sides' learning ability. During the trading process, the generator and the large consumer take turns to quote their price, which enables both of them to gradually revise their awareness of the reserved price of the other side and to forecast the price more precisely. Calculation example proved the Bayesian learning model based the dynamic game method effective.

关 键 词:电力市场 序贯博弈 贝叶斯动态博弈学习模型 

分 类 号:TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] F407.61[经济管理—产业经济]

 

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