基于习惯形成的预防性储蓄——中国城镇居民消费行为的实证分析  

Precautionary Saving under Habit Formation:An Empirical Study of Chinese Urban Population Consumption Behavior

作　　者：杭斌[1,2] 郭香俊[3] 

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学经济学院 [2]山西财经大学数量经济研究所 [3]东北财经大学统计学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2009年第3期38-43,共6页Statistical Research

摘　　要：本文从理论上分析了习惯形成的原因以及对消费的影响,结论是:1.经济体制改革以来,随着经济的快速增长中国城镇居民已经习惯于生活水平不断提高,因此他们追求的目标是保持消费长期稳定增长,而不是消费在各个时期的均匀分配,从而各期消费的效用是相互关联的。2.习惯形成参数越大,边际消费倾向就越低。即习惯形成下的消费行为类似于谨慎导致的消费行为。3.较高的储蓄率增强了家庭抵御风险的能力,因此,消费的惯性越强,收入不确定性对消费的影响就越小。随后本文把习惯形成和缓冲储备储蓄理论结合在一起,利用1997-2007年中国26个省(直辖市)的城镇住户调查数据进行了实证分析。结果显示,习惯形成和收入不确定性都是导致中国城镇居民高储蓄现象的重要原因。Firstly this paper analyzes the reasons of habit formation and its effects on consumption, my conclusions are： 1. With a rapid growth of economy, the standard of living has been improved for most chinese urban households, so their target is to keep consumption increasing step by step. Therefore, the consumption utilities of different periods are correlated; 2. The larger habit formation parameter becomes, the lower MPC is, which means that consumer behavior under habit formation is similar to the behavior induced by prudence; 3. In addition, high saving rate also increases family ability to resist risk, so the stronger habit is, the less income uncertainty influences consumption. Then, this paper incorporates buffer-stock saving model with habit formation, and the data of urban households in China＇ s 26 provinces from 1997 to 2007 are used for an empirical study. Estimated result shows that beth habit formation and income uncertainty are important reasons for urban households＇ high saving rate.

关 键 词：习惯形成 预防性储蓄 缓冲储备储蓄 城镇居民消费行为 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]