发电系统可靠性随可靠性参数和电气参数变化规律建模  

Modeling of generation system reliability variation with reliability parameters and electrical parameters

作　　者：欧阳稳[1] 谢开贵[1] 王小波 冯怡[1] 胡博[1] 曹侃[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学输配电装备及系统安全与新技术国家重点实验室,重庆400030 [2]湖北省电力勘测设计院,湖北武汉430024

出　　处：《电力自动化设备》2009年第4期41-45,共5页Electric Power Automation Equipment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50577072,50777067);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(NCET-05-0762);国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(973计划)(2004CB217908)~~

摘　　要：为了快速求取负荷或元件可靠性参数变化后系统的可靠性指标,深入分析了发电系统可靠性指标随负荷变化的曲线,选取合适的函数对可靠性指标和负荷进行坐标变换,使变换后的变量之间近似满足二次函数关系,对经坐标变换后的自变量和因变量建立一元二次回归模型,然后再进行坐标的逆变换,从而得到发电系统可靠性指标关于系统负荷的回归方程。对算例结果进行显著性检验,结果表明各可靠性指标回归方程的F检验值均大于F0.01,说明回归方程具有高度显著性。此外,还建立了发电系统可靠性指标随机组可靠性参数变化的多元非线性回归模型。这2个模型不仅揭示了发电系统可靠性指标与负荷和机组可靠性参数之间的变化规律,还可以用来估计参数变化后系统的可靠性以及预测系统未来某时刻的可靠性。In order to quickly calculate the system reliability indices after load or element reliability parameters have changed, the curve of generation system reliability variation with load is analyzed. Coordinates transformation is implemented by selecting an appropriate function to make the relation between reliability index and load nearly quadric, for which a quadratic regression model is established. The regression equation of generation system reliability varying with load is thus obtained by inverse coordinates transformation. The significance test of an example indicates that the F values of all regression equations are bigger than F0 01, showing high significance. Similarly, the multi -variable nonlinear regression model of generation system reliability variation with generator reliability parameters is presented. These two models describe the rules of generation system reliability variation with load and generator parameters, which can be used to forecast the reliability of generation system.

关 键 词：发电系统 可靠性参数 负荷 回归分析 坐标变换 

分 类 号：TM711[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] TP202.1[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]