区域资本流动:基于投资与储蓄关系的检验  

Regional Capital Mobility: A Test Based on Investment and Saving

作　　者：徐冬林[1] 陈永伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学信息学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2009年第3期40-48,共9页China Industrial Economics

摘　　要：本文应用目前最新提出的似无关动态协整模型,通过估计与检验我国各地区间投资与储蓄的相互关系,分析我国区域资本流动状况与长期还债能力约束。实证结果表明,资本在区域间的流动能力总体上还比较弱,但是在西部开发以前,我国区域资本主要由中西部地区流向东部地区。资本的长期流入,使得东部地区投资收益下降,长期还债能力减弱,同时也导致中西部地区经济增长缓慢,这一趋势直至西部开发以后得以缓解。This paper, using a newly developed seemingly unrelated dynamic cointegrating regression, estimates and examines the long-run cointegration between investment and saving in three selected regions of China. Also, we analyses the regional capital mobility and examine the long-run solvency constraints. The empirical results prove that although it is limited, China＇s regional capital is flowing from central and western areas into eastern area before the Western Development Program. However, the sustaining inflow has reduced the investment return in eastern region, which induces the long-run solvency declining. Meanwhile, the central and western regions mark a net capital outflow until the Western Development Program, which should account for the creeping economic growth in these areas.

关 键 词：资本流动 投资 储蓄 面板协整 

分 类 号：F207[经济管理—国民经济]