1978～2007年市场动力对中国工业化影响的实证分析  

Empirical Analysis on the Influence of Market Force on China's Industrialization——Based on the Data from 1978-2007

作　　者：柳思维[1,2] 王娟[1,2] 尹元元[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学商学院,湖南长沙410083 [2]湖南商学院,湖南长沙410205

出　　处：《系统工程》2009年第2期38-44,共7页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家社科基金重大资助项目(07ZD023);湖南省社科基金重大资助项目(08ZDA07)

摘　　要：中国特色新型工业化与经济增长的动力条件在本质上具有一致性,实证研究表明,消费、投资、出口与工业增长之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,本文构建了一个协整模型来测度市场动力与新型工业化之间的量化关系。长期来看,消费对工业化的影响最大,投资次之,出口的影响最小。短期内,中国工业化水平受投资的影响最大,其次是消费,最小的是出口。滞后变量模型表明消费、投资、出口与中国特色新型工业化存在典型的滞后效应,其中消费的影响最大,其次是投资和出口。New industrialization with Chinese characteristics and the dynamic conditions of economic growth are inherently consistent with market force. According to the empirical study, this paper indicates that there is a long-term stability cointegratiou relation among consumption, investment, export and industrial growth. The eointegration model shows that consumption has the greatest influence on the industrial growth ; that the influence of investment on it comes next, and that export has the least influence. While in a short time, the impact of investment on industrial growth is the greatest, that of consumption takes second place and export has the least influence on it. Tl^e lag variable model indicates that there exists a typical hysteresis effect among consumption, investment, export and industrial growth. The result also shows the same features as the long-term stability cointegration test.

关 键 词：市场动力 中国工业化 实证分析 

分 类 号：F061[经济管理—政治经济学]