非风险中性定价下的深层砂砾岩低品位储量开采价值评价  

Value Evaluation of Low-grade Reserves Exploitation for Deep Glutenite under No Risk Neutral Pricing

作　　者：张朋程[1] 丁浩[1] 张琪[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)经济管理学院,山东青岛266580

出　　处：《中外能源》2012年第9期41-44,共4页Sino-Global Energy

摘　　要：随着国际石油价格不断攀升,深层砂砾岩低品位储量目前成为各油田下一步开采目标。储量开采价值评价作为深层砂砾岩储量开发项目的前期工作,对能否实现高效开采目标有着重要意义。由于深层砂砾岩低品位储量开发项目具有高风险性、不确定性、不可逆性、可推迟性、较大灵活性,选用与项目实际情况最相符的实物期权法进行开采价值评价。借鉴非风险中性条件下的欧式期权定价模型建立了深层砂砾岩低品位储量开采价值的期权价值评估模型,推导出了内在价值和期权价值的计算方法,进而计算出深层砂砾岩低品位储量开发项目的全部开采价值。以SL油田YJ深层砂砾岩低品位储量为例,计算出该储量开发项目的全部开采价值为374798万元,达到中国石化基准收益率要求,因此判断YJ深层砂砾岩低品位储量具有较高开采价值。Along with continuous rise of international oil price,low-grade reserves of deep glutenite have become the next exploitation target for each oilfield.The exploitation value evaluation is the preliminary work of development project on the low-grade reserves of deep glutenite,and it plays an important role in achieving the goal of efficient exploitation.These development projects have the characters of high risk,uncertainty,irreversibility,delay capability and great adaptability.Because of that,real option method tallies with the actual project situation may be applied to value evaluation of exploitation.This paper mainly constructs assess model of option value for exploitation value of the low-grade reserves in deep glutenite under no risk neutral pricing.Computing method for intrinsic value and option value is derived.Thus total exploitation value of the projects may be calculated.For the low-grade reserves of YJ deep glutenite in SL oilfield,its total exploitation value of its projects is 3747.98 million yuan,which meets the demands of base yield rate of SINOPEC.So we may know that the low-grade reserves of YJ deep glutenite have high exploitation value.

关 键 词：砂砾岩油气藏 储量 开采价值评价 实物期权法 净现值法 非风险中性条件 

分 类 号：TE155[石油与天然气工程—油气勘探]