我国能源效率的灰色关联度分析——基于能源弹性的视角  

Grey Correlation Analysis of Energy Efficiency of China——From Perspective of Production and Consumption Elasticity

作　　者：魏振香[1] 张冠洁 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)经济管理学院,山东青岛266555

出　　处：《中外能源》2012年第12期30-34,共5页Sino-Global Energy

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(项目编号:10CX05005B);山东省软科学研究计划项目(2011RKGB2038)资助

摘　　要：能源弹性是分析经济增长与能源生产、消费增加之间关系的重要指标。选取了2001～1010年我国煤炭、石油、天然气和水电、核能的生产、消费弹性作为数据样本,通过建立灰色关联度模型,得出煤炭、石油、天然气及水电、核能的生产弹性与总能源生产弹性的关联度分别为0.708946,0.669974、0.765697、0.676101,煤炭、石油、天然气及水电、核能的消费弹性与总能源消费弹性关联度分别为0.708946、0.669974、0.765697、0.676101。在能源生产弹性和消费弹性中,煤炭和天然气的关联度并不具有完全的一致性,建议加大对天然气这种新型清洁能源的开发、利用,现阶段应大力发展洁净煤技术,提高煤炭的燃烧效率,减少环境污染;目前石油的生产、消费弹性与总能源生产、消费弹性的关联度均为最低,建议应适度提高石油使用水平;水电、核能与总能源弹性关联度不高,建议目前应加大科研力度。Energy elasticity is an important indicator used in analyzing the relationship between economic growth and the increases in energy production and consumption.Using the elasticity of production and consumption of coal,petroleum,natural gas,hydropower and nuclear power in China during 2001 to 2010 as the sample data and with the help of grey correlation models,the authors of the article calculated the correlations between the elasticity of production of coal,petroleum,natural gas,hydropower and nuclear power and the elasticity of production of all energy sources,which are respectively 0.708946,0.669974,0.765697 and 0.676101,as well as correlations between the elasticity of consumption of coal,petroleum,natural gas,hydropower and nuclear power and the elasticity of consumption of all energy sources,which are respectively 0.708946,0.669974,0.765697 and 0.676101.In energy production and consumption elasticity,the correlation between coal and natural gas was not totally consistent,so the authors suggest strengthening the development and utilization of natural gas and clean coal technology to raise coal burning efficiency and reduce environmental pollution.As at the moment,the correlations between the elasticity of production and consumption of petroleum and the elasticity of total energy production and consumption are both low,the authors suggest raising the level of use of petroleum and given the relatively low correlations between the elasticity of hydropower and nuclear power and that of total energy,the authors suggest stepping up scientific research.

关 键 词：能源弹性 能源消费 能源生产 灰色关联模型 清洁能源 能源效率 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济] F224