IPCC SRES A2情景下吉林省气候未来趋势预估及对粮食产量的可能影响  

Projection of Climate Change in Jilin Province and Its Possible Effects on Grain Yield Under IPCC SRES A2 Scenario

作　　者：涂钢 李巧萍[2] 苏丽欣 袁福香 

机构地区：[1]吉林省气象科学研究所中高纬度环流系统与东亚季风开放实验室,长春130062 [2]国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《吉林大学学报（地球科学版）》2010年第S1期146-153,共8页Journal of Jilin University：Earth Science Edition

基　　金：中国气象局省所科技发展专项(CMATG2008S03);国家自然科学基金项目(40975055);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200906020)

摘　　要：利用全球海气耦合模式(BCC-CM1)单向嵌套区域气候模式(BCC-RegCM1.0),在IPCC SRESA2排放情景下,对2011-2030年东北地区气候变化趋势进行了预估。结果显示:21世纪前期东北地区降水量有所增加,但增加幅度很小,吉林省降水量增加主要集中在夏季;年平均地面气温在整个区域普遍升高,秋季升温较小,平均日较差无明显变化趋势,吉林省地区升温幅度较低,平均升温约0.3℃。在此基础上,初步分析了吉林省未来气候变化对粮食产量的可能影响:未来气候对东部地区玉米单产有正面影响,增加幅度大,潜力大,对西部干旱区的玉米单产有不利影响;而对水稻单产的影响,随着温度的升高,增产明显,东部增幅大于中西部。Future climate change projection during 2011-2030 over North-eastern China has been undertaken by using the nested Regional climate model(BCC_CM1-BCC_RegCM1.0) under the IPCC SRES A2 emission scenario.The results show that,in the Early 21st Century,precipitation over North-eastern China presents increasing trend with little magnitude.Precipitation in Jilin province is expected to increase in summer.Annual mean surface air temperature will keep on increasing over the whole region,and the warming is weaker in autumn.There was little change of mean daily range of temperature.Temperature increasing is lower in Jilin by about 0.3℃.Then the possible effects on grain yield in Jilin are preliminary analyzed.It indicates that the effect on maize yield per unit area is positive in eastern of Jilin with the yield increasing obviously and has large potential,but the effect was negative in western.As to rice,increase of yield per unit area is apparent with the temperature rising,and the yield in eastern is expected to be larger than that in west-middle of Jilin.

关 键 词：吉林省 未来气候变化趋势 粮食产量 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]