气候变化对中国农业气象灾害与病虫害的影响  

Effects of climate change on agricultural meteorological disaster and crop insects diseases

作　　者：李祎君[1] 王春乙[1] 赵蓓[2] 刘文军 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [2]泰州市气象局,泰州225300 [3]北京市海淀区气象局,北京100080

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2010年第S1期263-271,共9页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(30771248);泰州市2008年政府科技项目"泰州市为农专业气象服务技术研究"共同资助

摘　　要：在前人研究的基础上结合中国统计局《中国农业统计年鉴》1978-2007年主要农业气象灾害成灾面积、经济损失等资料与全国气象站点气象要素资料,总结了气候变化对我国农业气象灾害发生发展的影响,各类农业病虫害由于气候变暖特别是暖冬出现的新的变化发展趋势。结果表明,在已有气候变暖的影响下,绝大部分农业气象灾害危害加重、发生频繁,特别是极端气候事件发生频率加大,极大的威胁着中国粮食生产的安全。气候变化对农业病虫害的影响也是如此,气候变暖造成病虫害发生世代数增加,危害范围扩大,为害程度加重,给农业病虫害的综合防治带来困难。未来农业气象灾害、病虫害会更加频繁,使农业生产的不稳定性加大,应予以积极应对。Climate changes result in warming air temperature and frequent perturbations in precipitation and along with extreme weather events, which is the great threat to the safety of agricultural production. This paper summarized the occurrence and development trends of agricultural meteorological disaster, and new changes in kinds of crop insects and agricultural meteorological disaster base on previous research results and on the data from 'Chinese Agriculture Yearbook' published by National Bureau of Statistics. The results showed that most of agricultural meteorological disaster and crop insects became severe with climate warming, in particular, the high frequency of extreme weather events as a great threat to the safety of food production. The future agricultural disasters and pests will be even more frequently, which make agricultural production unstable, and a positive response should be taken.

关 键 词：气候变化 农业 气象 农业气象灾害 农业病虫害 

分 类 号：S42[农业科学—植物保护] S43