基于事故链的电力系统连锁故障风险模糊综合评估方法  

Risk Assessment of Cascading Failures in Power System Based on Fault Chain and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

作　　者：王英英[1] 罗毅[1] 涂光瑜[1] 刘沛[1] 刘文才[2] 

机构地区：[1]电力安全与高效湖北省重点实验室(华中科技大学),湖北省武汉市430074 [2]北京全路通信信号研究设计院,北京市丰台区100073

出　　处：《中国电机工程学报》2010年第S1期25-30,共6页Proceedings of the CSEE

基　　金：国家电网公司科技项目(SGKJJSKF[2008]469)~~

摘　　要：分析目前电力系统连锁故障方法研究的不足,从预防大停电事故的角度,提出基于事故链的电力系统连锁故障风险模糊综合评估方法。该方法根据安全科学中"事故链"的概念,建立连锁故障的事故链模型,根据事故链影响因素的量化评估值计算发生概率,并采用严重度指标从系统暂态安全的角度评估事故链的后果。应用模糊综合评估方法对事故链的风险进行评估和等级划分,并给出风险等级的释义和相应的预防控制指导方案。最后,以IEEE 39节点系统和某地区实际电网为例,从定量反映系统风险水平和为大停电事故的预防和控制提供决策依据方面,验证了该方法的有效性和实用性。The defects of present methods for power system cascading failures have been summarized.According to the concept of preventive control of large scale blackout,a new risk asseessment method based on fault chain and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is proposed for power system cascading failures.The model based on fault chain for cascading failures is built up,and then the consequence of cascading failures on the concept of transient security is quantified.Furthermore,the membership function is used to obtain the risk level which is described by fuzzy language,and then defensive suggestions are given by analysing the assessment results.Finally,IEEE 39-bus test system and actual power system simulations are shown that the proposed risk assessment method is utilizable and efficient to assess the risk of cascading failures in power system quantitatively and to establish defensive measures.

关 键 词：电力系统 连锁故障 风险评估 事故链 模糊综合评估 

分 类 号：TM711[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]