变权组合预测模型的建立及其在区域生态风险预测中的应用  

Establishment of the changeable weight combination forecasting model and its application in regional ecological risk forecasting.

作　　者：臧淑英[1] 梁欣[2] 冯仲科[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨师范大学地理系 [2]黑龙江工程学院测绘工程系

出　　处：《北京林业大学学报》2007年第S2期203-208,共6页Journal of Beijing Forestry University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40271044);黑龙江省自然科学基金项目(ZTF2005-32)

摘　　要：为探讨变权组合预测模型在区域生态风险预测中的应用,该文以黑龙江省大庆市为研究对象,利用该市1976、19881、9921、996、2001、2003年各年的TM遥感影像数据,以GIS技术为数据集成分析平台,获取了20余年不同时期的土地利用信息.在此基础上,引入层次分析法,确定不同土地利用类型的生态风险权重,构造各土地利用类型不同时段的综合生态风险指数,采用基于回归预测法、灰色预测法和神经网络预测法的变权组合预测方法模拟了大庆市2010年生态风险程度空间分布预测图.结果表明,生态风险指数的空间分布是基本沿着城区和主要交通干线的轮廓呈线状或点状逐步向外减小的,这说明干道交通系统建设以及城市开发活动在区域生态风险程度增加中的重要贡献;大庆市生态风险程度分布中,高、中生态风险程度区的范围都有所扩大,这表明大庆市的生态风险在不断的提高,范围也在不断扩大.In order to discuss the changeable weight combination forecasting model and its application in regional ecological risk forecasting,the study was based on the TM image during six periods of 1976,1988,1992,1996,2001and 2003 in Daqing City,northeastern Heilongjiang Province.This study used GIS technology as the data integration analysis platform and obtained land utilization information in different periods of 20 years.The authors determined the weight values of the ecological risk from different land use patterns by analytic hierarchy process and constructing integrated ecological risk index of different periods.Using changeable weight combination forecasting method,the regression forecast,gray forecast and artificial nerve network forecast were used to simulate the spatial distribution prediction map of ecological risk degree of Daqing in 2010.The results illustrated that the spatial distribution of the ecology risk index was basically skeleton line outline, which was along the city and main transportation skeleton,outward reducing gradually.It reveals the important contribution of the principle transportation system construction and the city development operation in the regional ecological risk degree increasing.According to the spatial distribution prediction map of ecological risk degree of Daqing,it indicates that the ecological risk as well as its scope in the city of Daqing are being improved increasingly.

关 键 词：组合预测 变权 区域生态风险 大庆市 

分 类 号：X820.4[环境科学与工程—环境工程]