洪水漫坝模糊风险简化模型的探讨  

Research on Simplified Model of Fuzzy Hazard Analysis of Flood Overtopping

作　　者：丰伟[1] 杨学堂[1] 

机构地区：[1]三峡大学土木水电学院 硕士研究生

出　　处：《灾害与防治工程》2004年第2期35-39,共5页Disaster and Control Engineering

摘　　要：介绍了目前洪水风险分析的基本模型,指出了其缺点在于过于繁琐,且大多没有考虑模糊性。在简化了随机荷载和随机抗力的基础上,综合考虑其随机性和模糊性,提出洪水漫坝模糊可靠度分析的简化模型,并介绍了一种该模型的近似解法。给出了一算例,分析其计算结果,如实指出了该方法存在的局限性以及适用条件:该模型对随机变量的特征参数准确性要求较高,在随机变量特征参数不确定时,该方法可作粗略的估算;在确保随机变量特征参数相对准确的条件下,该简化方法的计算成果具有满意的精确度。The defects of current basic models of flood hazard analysis are spotted out to be their tediousness and the neglect of fuzzy factors after an introduction about current basic models of flood hazard analysis is presented firstly in this paper.Based on the simplification of random load and resistance,and taken random and fuzzy factors into account,a simplified model of fuzzy reliability analysis of flood overtopping is then put forth,and an approximate solution is presented with the illustration of a detailed calculation example,the result of which is subsequently analyzed to prove that this model demands a high accuracy of random variable parameters,that's to say,this method can only be applied to rough calculations when the parameters are not definite.However,if these random variable parameters are precise enough,it can yield an accurate result.This is just the limitation and application scope of this method as well.

关 键 词：漫坝 可靠度 模糊性 近似解法 

分 类 号：TV877[水利工程—水利水电工程]