Seismicity Factor A-Value and Its Application to Mid-Term Earthquake Prediction in North China  

作　　者：Wang Wei, Song Xianyue, and Liu Zheng, and Wang ZhengzhengSeismological Bureau of Shanghai Municipality, Shanghai 200062, China Seismological Bureau of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing 210014, China 

出　　处：《Earthquake Research in China》1999年第4期37-47,共11页中国地震研究（英文版）

基　　金：This project is sponsored by the CSB under the project No.95-04, China.

摘　　要：The seismicity factor A-value is defined by synthesizing the seismicity precursors in time, space and magnitude in this paper. The seismicity data of moderate or small earthquakes during 1972 ~ 1996 in North China are used to perform spacial scanning of seismicity factor A-value. The result shows that there are obviously anomaly zones of A-value with better prediction effect in the mid-term of 2~3 years before most moderately strong earthquakes. Some problems regarding the mid-term prediction using A-value have been discussed.The seismicity factor A-value is defined by synthesizing the seismicity precursors in time, space and magnitude in this paper. The seismicity data of moderate or small earthquakes during 1972 ~ 1996 in North China are used to perform spacial scanning of seismicity factor A-value. The result shows that there are obviously anomaly zones of A-value with better prediction effect in the mid-term of 2~3 years before most moderately strong earthquakes. Some problems regarding the mid-term prediction using A-value have been discussed.

关 键 词：SEISMICITY FACTOR A-value SEISMIC spacial concentrative DEGREE C-VALUE SEISMIC dangerous DEGREE D-VALUE SEISMIC magnitude FACTOR Mf-value. 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]