动力延伸预报产品在广西月尺度降水滚动预测中的释用  

Application of Dynamic Extended Rang Forecast Products on Monthly Precipitation Rolling Prediction in Guangxi

作　　者：何慧[1] 欧艺[1] 覃志年[1] 

机构地区：[1]广西气候中心,广西南宁530022

出　　处：《气象研究与应用》2009年第1期15-18,共4页Journal of Meteorological Research and Application

基　　金：广西自然科学基金(桂科自0728074)资助

摘　　要：对广西88个站全年各旬月尺度降水距平百分率作自然正交展开(EOF分解),选取累积方差贡献接近75%的前几个主成分为预报量。利用1982年至今的国家气候中心月动力延伸集合预报资料或回算实验资料,从月尺度平均500hPa位势高度、700hPaU、V向水平风速延伸预报场中选取初选预报因子,并运用EOF分解构建成综合预报因子,分别选取其中与各个预报分量相关程度高的主成分建立预报方程,滚动制作广西月尺度降水量预报。91个独立样本试验和实际应用证明,预报效果较好。According to empirical orthogonal function （EOF） analysis on the monthly precipitation of ten days average from 88 stations in Guangxi, the first several principal components with accumulating contribution ratio closing to 75% are used as predictands. Basing the monthly dynamic extended rang forecast （or hindcast） products from National Climate Center since 1982, EOF was used to synthesize the primary forecasting factors from monthly mean 500hPa geopotential height fields and 700hPa horizontal wind fields. Then the synthesized forecasting factors which have a high correlativity with the predictands above mentioned are selected to build prediction equations respectively to calculate the monthly precipitation every ten days. It proves that the prediction equations are useful for the actual operational forecasting through 91 individual sample tests.

关 键 词：动力延伸预报产品 月尺度降水量 滚动预测 综合预报因子 解释应用 

分 类 号：P45[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]