马尔柯夫链模型预测三化螟发生趋势  

Studies on the Tendency Prediction of Rice Stem Borer Population with Markov Model

作　　者：张润杰[1] 古德祥[1] 蒲蟄龙 周之铭[2] 林宪德 

机构地区：[1]中山大学昆虫学研究所 [2]中山大学数学系 [3]四会县病虫测报站

出　　处：《生态科学》1989年第2期11-15,共5页Ecological Science

摘　　要：本文把三化螟的年间数量变动作为一个离散系统,然后根据马尔柯夫链模型研究其轻、中、重发生的初始概率、转移概率,预测其今后7至10年的发生趋势;同时设置不同条件的转移概率,模拟未来5至7年的变化趋势,为制定防治决策提供依据.The fluctuation of rice stem borer population was treated as a discrete system.The initial probability and the transfer probability in three status (light status,middle status,and serious status) were caculated.With the Markov model,the prediction of population tendency in the fucture from 7 to 10 years was made and the simulation of population tendency in three condictions was done too.

关 键 词：马尔柯夫链 转移概率 发生趋势 离散系统 生产条件 转移矩阵 样本资料 防治决策 水稻害虫 模拟条件 

分 类 号：Q14[生物学—生态学]