我国台风业务预报的评价  

AN EVALUATION OF TYPHOON OPERATIONAL FORECAST IN CHINA

作　　者：费亮[1] 吴天泉[1] 徐静远 

机构地区：[1]上海台风研究所

出　　处：《气象科学研究院院刊》1989年第3期319-327,共9页

摘　　要：本文根据1985—1987年三年资料,评价我国当前台风业务预报现状,并介绍了各种台风移向移速预报方法误差的情况,并按处罚分排列它们的名次,使预报员能了解几种主要客观方法的性能,有利于业务预报的改进。In this paper, using the typhoon data during 1985—1987, the current operational forecast-ing status has been evaluated. Also, the errors of the typhoon forecasting with different methodsfor the moving direction and speed have been shown. According to the verification of typhoonforecast, the names of arrangement in the order of their scores have been given. Therefore, theforecasters could be to understand the performance for the methods and to improve the opera-tional forecast.

关 键 词：业务预报 移速 数值预报 广州中心气象台 预报水平 距离误差 客观预报 预报精度 预报结果 统计预报 

分 类 号：P4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]