理论改良还是理论缺口--新现实主义与冷战后中美地缘竞争的分析  

Neorealism:Theoretical Enforcement or Opening?——A Case Study of Sino-American Geopolitical Competition after the Cold War

作　　者：张登及 

机构地区：[1]台湾中正大学战略暨国际事务研究所,台北邮编 235420

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2009年第3期6-18,共13页World Economics and Politics

摘　　要：肯尼思·华尔兹创建的新现实主义被认为是国际关系理论的一大突破,而约翰·米尔斯海默则自20世纪90年代初起成为新现实主义主要命题的捍卫者。米氏对新现实主义做了重要的补充和修正,其核心是地缘因素,包括三个子因素:地面力量的首要性;海洋对国家军力投射的阻碍;国家共享边界对战略选择的影响。透过这些更新,米氏进一步论证了陆权大国的进攻性倾向和海权大国保持"离岸平衡手"的合理性。作者以冷战结束后美国与中国在东北亚和中亚的地缘竞争为案例,探讨新现实主义原型和米尔斯海默修正的有效性。其结论是:(1)地缘因素与单位层次的其他因素直接有关,应被视为单位层次的变量;(2)米氏新增的地缘因素恐陷入华尔兹所极力避免的"化约理论",使新现实主义的简约优势受到折损;(3)米氏理论更新的有用性,有可能显示新现实主义基本假定内部的重要缺口,而将成为未来理论再调整的契机。It is now widely accepted that neorealism founded by Kenneth N.Waltz has dominated IR studies for the last 25 years due to its theoretical parsimoniousness and simplicity.Having experienced various challenges,this theory regained its commanding highs by the revisions from both offensive and defensive realists in the 1990s.Among the new inputs into neorealism,John J.Mearsheimer's offensive version of neorealism is the most notable and compelling drive.What Mearsheimer has contributed are geographic factors:the primacy of land power,the stopping power of large bodies of water,and the role of the 'off-shore balancer'.This article examines both Waltz and Mearsheimer's propositions against US-China geographic competitions surrounding China,especially in Northeast Asia and Central Asia,after the Cold War.The findings,while partly confirmed Mearsheimer's predictions in Northeast Asia,provide a few anomalies which deserve further reflection.The exceptions appear because Mearsheimer further naturalized and reified the neorealist model.In effect,Waltz has allowed the legitimacy of these exceptions by relaxing his positivist and determinist stance,by which 'politics' can reclaim its place in political studies.

关 键 词：新现实主义 地缘政治 国际关系理论 进攻性现实主义 中美关系 

分 类 号：D80[政治法律—政治学]