土地利用/土地覆被变化(LUCC)模型研究进展  

Recent Progresses of Land Use and Land Cover Change(LUCC) Models

作　　者：唐华俊[1,2] 吴文斌[1,2] 杨鹏[1,2] 陈佑启[1,2] Peter H.Verburg 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所,北京100081 [2]农业部资源遥感与数字农业重点开放实验室,北京100081 [3]荷兰瓦赫宁根大学环境系

出　　处：《地理学报》2009年第4期456-468,共13页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划(2007BAC03A10);中央级公益性科研院所专项资金项目(2008IARRP01)~~

摘　　要：土地利用/土地覆被变化(LUCC)是全球环境变化的重要原因,LUCC模型研究始终是土地变化科学研究的重点。论文系统总结了近10年来国内外LUCC模型在理论、方法、实践应用等方面取得的新进展,指出了亟待解决的问题,并对今后的发展方向进行了展望。研究发现,①LUCC模型的功能和作用呈现多样化趋势,是了解、认识和解释土地利用系统的动态变化特征、过程和效应的有效工具,可以服务于土地利用管理和政策的制订。②模型的核心内容是研究LUCC时空变化格局,模型发展正经历从单一的非空间模型向非空间模型和空间模型融合的演进过程,但多数模型只重视空间变化机制研究,而对时间机制考虑不足。③反馈机制是LUCC系统的一个重要特征,现有模型在反馈机制方面的研究尚十分薄弱,研究不同时空尺度的反馈机制必将是未来LUCC模型的新焦点。④LUCC研究本质上是"人类—环境"关系研究,以往模型多为局部均衡分析模型,未来LUCC模型发展趋向应从系统观和整体观角度来综合考虑"人类—环境"相互作用机制,这也是LUCC模型的最高更次的科学难点问题。⑤多尺度、多层次的综合研究是LUCC模型的必然要求,模型空间尺度已经从早期的单一空间尺度转变到现今的多空间尺度,但尺度推移仍是模型研究中值得深入探讨的问题。⑥尽管LUCC模型验证方法趋于多元化,但目前还没有一个模型验证的统一标准和规范,参考数据的不足也大大限制了模型验证效果,如何对LUCC模型的可靠性和科学性进行合理验证始终是LUCC模型所面临的关键挑战之一。Land use and land cover change （LUCC） is a major part and also a main cause of global environmental changes, and it has emerged recently as an important focus for land change studies. Based on the systematic summary of the progress of studies in LUCC in the latest decade, including its theories, methods and applications, a series of problems that should be urgently resolved in the study are put forward, and some important study directions and priorities for future are reviewed. Results show that LUCC model plays an important role and is an efficient tool to support the analysis of the causes, processes and consequences of land use systems and to support land use planning and policy. Second, spatio-temporal patterns of LUCC are the research core of LUCC models. The development of models has experienced an evolvement from single non-spatial to the combination of non-spatial and spatial models, however, at present most models are static models and ignore the temporal dimension of land-use change. Third, feedback is one of the important characteristics of LUCC; however, the majority of the existing LUCC models are very weak in analyzing and presenting the feedbacks of LUCC. In this regard, how to get a better understanding of the feedbacks at different time and space scales will be one of new tasks in LUCC models. Fourth, the objective of LUCC models is to study the dynamic relations of a coupled human-environment. Currently, most LUCC models are partial-equilibrium ones. Future LUCC models will focus on studies on the human-environment system from a systematic and holistic point of view. Fifth, multi-scale analysis in LUCC models is needed for a better understanding of land use change. Early LUCC models used to take a single scale or level of analysis into account. Recently, a number of LUCC models which implement multiple scales can be distinguished. The scaling will be a key issue in future LUCC models. Finally, although many methods of model validation are available, there is not a uniform standard and criter

关 键 词：土地利用/土地覆被变化(LUCC) 模型 作用 时空变化格局 反馈 尺度 验证 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济]