农牧交错带以农为主区科技进步和社会发展对农用地面积变化的影响——以武川县为例  

The Driving Forces of Scientific Progress and Social Development on Farming-Pastoral Transitional Zone in Farming Area——A Case of Wuchuan County

作　　者：张修江[1] 郝润梅[1] 其其格[1] 张富[1] 海春兴[1] 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古师范大学地理科学学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010022

出　　处：《内蒙古师范大学学报（自然科学汉文版）》2009年第2期235-238,共4页Journal of Inner Mongolia Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(06BJL045);内蒙古师范大学研究生科研创新基金项目(YJS07012)

摘　　要：以农牧交错带北部边缘地区的内蒙古呼和浩特市武川县为研究区,从县域规模水平上对武川县农用地利用变化的科技进步与社会发展的驱动因子及其作用机理和过程进行分析,并利用多元统计学方法建立了武川县农用地面积变化的驱动力模型.结果表明:近10年间武川县农用地面积整体上趋于减少;促使农用地面积发生变化的社会发展因子包括农业机械总动力、柴油使用量、第一产业值、第二产业值、第三产业值、房地产业、城镇居民消费、农业贷款;促使农用地面积发生变化的科技进步因子包括农用薄膜使用量、化肥使用量、机电排灌面积、农药使用量、机电井数、水果产量、乡村务农人口.多元线性回归分析结果表明,农用地面积变化与柴油使用量、农业贷款、农药使用量、水果产量、机电井数有较大相关性.In this paper, Wuchuan County of Inner Mongolia as the study region, the spatial and temporal change of cultivated land is studied by using the relevance analysis, as well as the driving forces for change by principal component analysis and regression analysis. The results indicate that the factors of social development include the mechanism oil, the first domain,the second domain, the third domain, real estate,the denizen consume,and the agricultural loan. The driving factors of scientific progress include the total power of agricultural machinery,agricultural use of film, the use of chemical fertilizers,the irrigation and drainage area by electrical and mechanical, the use of pesticides, the number of the well, and the fruit production. The linear regression analysis shows cultivated area change is significant correlated with the mechanism oil,the agricultural loan, the agricultural use of film, the fruit production, and the number of the well.

关 键 词：农牧交错带 农用地 驱动力 科技进步 社会发展 武川县 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济]