基于混合Beta分布的火箭弹射座椅可靠性评估  

Reliability Assessment of Rocket Ejection Seat Based on Mixed Beta Distribution

作　　者：董海平[1] 蔡瑞娇[1] 王玮[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学爆炸科学与技术国家重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《航空学报》2009年第2期232-235,共4页Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica

基　　金：省部级项目

摘　　要：建立了一种综合利用子系统试验数据和现场整机试验数据的火箭弹射座椅Bayes可靠性评估方法。该方法通过卡方拟合优度检验确定继承因子,建立混合Beta分布后,基于后验分布评估座椅可靠性。采用该方法对某火箭弹射座椅可靠性进行了评估,在置信水平0.90情况下其可靠度达到了0.924。结果表明,在相同的现场试验情况下,评估结果比经典统计方法更合理。A Bayesian reliability assessment method for a rocket ejection seat is proposed which combines the reliability information of the whole seat with its subsystems. First, the inheritance factor is determined with chi-square goodness of fit; then the mixed Beta distribution is built; finally, the posterior distribution is used to assess system reliability. With this new method, the reliability of a rocket ejection seat is evaluated to reach 0. 924 under the confidence level 0.90. The result shows that it is more rational with this new method than with classical statistical method and it is feasible to use the new method to evaluate the reliability of a rocket ejection seat.

关 键 词：火箭弹射座椅 可靠性 混合Beta分布 继承因子 后验分布 

分 类 号：V244.212[航空宇航科学与技术—飞行器设计]