洪涝与人口关系探讨——以长江上游近1700年历史洪涝和历史人口关系为例  

Study on Relationship between Floods and Population in History——A Case Study on Upper Reaches of Changjiang River for 1700 Years

作　　者：叶兴东[1] 黎云祥[1] 

机构地区：[1]西华师范大学生物多样性保护中心环境科学与生物多样性保护省级实验室,四川南充637002

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2009年第3期248-249,288,共3页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(编号:04XZS004);国家自然科学基金(编号:30370149)资助

摘　　要：在建立长江上游1700年大洪涝受灾面积序列和四川1949年历史人口序列的基础上,对长江上游近1700年历史洪涝和历史人口进行了相关分析。结果显示,两者相关且呈显著正相关关系(r=0.569,P<0.01),即人口越多,洪涝越严重。在此基础上对洪涝越来越严重原因进行了分析,并指出:洪涝的根本原因是人口过剩,要从根本上减少洪涝损失就应该从根本上减少人口数量,做到"断源疏流"。Based on the building of the affected area series and historic population series in the upper reaches of the Changjiang River for 1700 years,this paper analyzed the correlation between floods and population,and found that Pearson＇s correlation coefficient （0.569） was significant at the 0.01 level. The larger the population was, the more frequent the floods were. Then this paper analyzed the reasons for the worsening floods, and found that the main reason was over population.Therefore,this paper suggested that we should control the size of population to reduce the loss caused by floods.

关 键 词：长江上游 历史洪涝 历史人口 洪涝成因分析 洪涝治理建议 

分 类 号：P333.2[天文地球—水文科学]