我国货币政策有效性实证分析:1980—2005  

An Empirical Analysis of China’s Monetary Policy Efficiency from1980 to 2005

作　　者：马飞雄[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]暨南大学,广州510632 [2]广东外语外贸大学,广州510420

出　　处：《广东外语外贸大学学报》2009年第2期18-21,共4页Journal of Guangdong University of Foreign Studies

摘　　要：我国二十世纪九十年代中期以来建立和执行的货币政策是以盯住货币量为其主要特征。该货币政策框架基本上是有效的。但本文通过实证分析发现此也遇上了一些问题:最终目标的模糊和多重目标之间的矛盾;中介目标货币供应量与最终目标之间的相关性减弱,且不稳定;中央银行对货币供应量不能很有效的调控。本文认为通过提高货币政策制定和实施的独立性和责任要求,提高货币政策透明度,有效引导公众预期,调整盯住货币量目标制为灵活盯住通胀制。China＇s monetary policy enacted and implemented since the metaphase of the 1990s has taken the money supply as its intermediary goal and the controlling inflation rate and economic growth rate as its ultimate goal. In general, the framework of the monetary policy has run efficiently. However, the present study has discovered some existing problems in the policy through an empirical analysis. The problems include the contradiction between the blurred ultimate objective and multiple objectives, the decreasing correlativity between intermediary objective and ultimate objective. In other words, money supply and the ultimate objective have become unstable and the central bank has not been able to have a good control over overall monetary supply. In order to solve these problems, this paper suggests the flexible execution of an inflation targeted policy to replace the existing money-and-exchange-rate targeted policy.

关 键 词：货币政策 货币供应量 政策效果 

分 类 号：F822.1[经济管理—财政学]