测量国债规模的模型阐释——基于国债功能的变迁  

On the Scale of Public Debt:the Measurement Model in System Transition

作　　者：叶子荣[1] 何代欣[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学公共管理学院,成都610031

出　　处：《公共管理学报》2009年第2期108-113,共6页Journal of Public Management

基　　金：四川省哲学社会科学"十一五"规划项目(SC08B35)

摘　　要：采用经济学规范研究方法,沿袭了模型阐释国债规模测量的主流研究路径———当前价值的借款约束模型和国债自然规模模型,从宏观和微观、供给与需求的角度,剖析了决定一国国债规模的关键要素,关注了不同模型下的均衡结果,获得了国债功能变迁下测量国债规模的组合模型。研究表明,在制度变迁等外部因素影响下,国债功能有显著的变化。国债功能的变迁是国债规模波动的主要原因之一。理论上,现今的国债规模测量存在短期均衡和长期均衡交替呈现的基本特征。而在动态分析框架下,国债规模的测量受到宏观和微观因素的共同影响。研究对理论模型结果进行了操作性解释,为实证研究搭建了必要的实施框架。研究认为,进一步地探寻测量国债规模组合模型的微观基础,是将来研究的主要方向。The scale of public debt can be considered as a result of political development,economic growth and social progress. However, economic theorists have already begun to query the so-called international criteria of public debt. This paper applies the method of economic theoretical research and follows the model of 'Present-Value Borrowing Constraint' and the model of 'Natural Limited Debt' as classical models. On the references of supply and demand and the perspectives of system transition in macroeconomics and microeconomics,some key independent variables that determine the scale of public debt are analyzed in this paper and a combined model for the measurement of the scale of public debt is concluded in the condition of system transition. This research also shows some conclusions. Firstly,the function of public debt is firmly influenced by system transition and the function transition of public debt is the main cause of its scale fluctuation. Theoretically, there are both short-term and long-term equivalence in the measurement of public scale. Then,macro and micro effects are allied to influence the measurement of public scale in dynamic analysis framework. Some operational explanations are set in this paper for future empirical research. Finally,this paper prospects that the further research is to find microeconomic foundation for the combined model.

关 键 词：国债规模 功能变迁 模型阐释 测量模型 

分 类 号：F22[经济管理—国民经济]