商业地产分期开发期权价值分析  

The Real Option Value of the Multi-Period Commercial Real Estate Development

作　　者：赵旭[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南城市学院城市管理系,益阳413000

出　　处：《基建优化》2007年第2期76-78,共3页Optimization of Capital Construction

基　　金：湖南省教育厅科研项目<湖南商业地产运营模式研究>成果之一(06C233)

摘　　要：开发企业采取分期开发方式,可以利用项目未知信息中蕴涵的机会给项目带来进一步选择的灵活性,以扩大项目价值。传统投资决策方法只适用于短期的、确定性高的一次性投资项目,而实物期权理论却是探讨分期开发投资的一种有效工具。采用Geske推导的复合看涨期权定价公式以及B-S简单看涨期权定价模型,构建分期开发期权价值计算模型,求解分期开发期权价值大小。该模型合理地评估了商业地产分期开发期权价值的大小,可以作为商业地产开发商进行投资决策的依据。Adopting a phased development, real estate enterprise can use the flexibility of the unknown information contained to expand the value of the item. The traditional method is only applicable to short- term investment decisions, the high uncertainty of a one- time investment projects. On the contrary, real option theory is an effective tool to explore multi - period investment. This paper constructed a phased development option value model. The model was reasonable to assess the options value of the multi- period commercial real estate development, Commercial real estate developers can use the model as the basis for investment decisions.

关 键 词：商业地产 实物期权 分期开发期权 

分 类 号：F293.30[经济管理—国民经济]