基于G-PPP模型的人民币区域“货币锚”效应  

The Impact of RMB Currency Anchor in East Asia:Based on G-PPP Model

作　　者：方霞[1] 陈志昂[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学金融学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2009年第4期57-69,共13页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金课题"人民币区域货币锚效应与升值空间研究"(项目号:70773104)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：当前的国际货币动荡正在使东亚各国脱离美元本位,寻求新的汇率制度安排。本文运用G-PPP模型,分金融危机前后两个时间段,论证东亚区域寻求稳定的"货币锚"的必要性和可行性,并通过比较东亚货币与人民币、美元和日元的购买力平价趋同程度的差异,揭示人民币是否在事实上具有隐形"货币锚"功能。实证结果表明:危机前东亚各经济体货币呈现低频锚定美元,而危机后呈现锚定人民币的现象。这一实证结果为人民币的国际化和东亚货币合作政策提供决策支持。This paper analyses the transformation of the economic characteristics and the dilemma of exchange rate arrangements in East Asia, then discusses why it is necessary to use RMB as the East Asian currency anchor. This paper analyses on the exchange rates＇ trends among East Asian countries before, during and after the crisis respectively. Through the comparison among US dollar, Japanese yen, and RMB, the author tries to make further deduction on which would be the potential anchor currency. Empirical results indicate that East Asian currencies are highly correlated with US dollar before the crisis, but highly correlated with RMB after the crisis. The paper concludes with some policy implications for an exchange rate arrangement in East Asia.

关 键 词：东亚 货币锚 最优货币区 购买力平价 

分 类 号：F821[经济管理—财政学]