多重防护的复杂系统中危险源风险评价定量方法研究  

Researching on quantitative risk assessment method of hazard in multi-defending complex system

作　　者：张秀艳[1] 王燕清[1] 罗其俊[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学安全科学与工程学院,天津300300

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2009年第2期81-84,共4页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：中国民用航空总局科技资金资助

摘　　要：通过对当前风险评价方法的研究,发现目前常用的风险评价方法都是针对特定领域危险源的评价,而对于风险管理中亟需的评价具体危险源的风险可接受水平的通用方法却很少涉及,即使有也尚处于定性或半定量研究阶段,这对于其后续步骤风险缓解措施的实施,以及安全预警信息的生成都有着极大局限性。鉴于此,提出了针对具体危险源进行风险评价的定量方法。首先结合里森模型对风险及其二重属性(可能性与严重性)的含义和归属进行明确界定,然后分别用两种不同的方法对风险的二重属性进行定量,其中在对严重性属性定量时引入了事件树的方法,最终得到量化的风险值。最后,用一个风险评价实例说明了这种风险定量评价方法的实施过程。By researching the exiting methods of risk assessment, it was discovered that these methods were all limited to specific fields, and the universal methods of assessing the accepting level of certain hazard were either rare involved or only qualitative, which is necessary to risk management. This leads difficulty to risk mitigation implementing and safety prediction information creating. So, the quantitative risk assessment method of single hazard was proposed. Firstly, the definition and adscription of risk and its two properties （likelihood and severity）were clarified. And then two different methods were applied to quantify the two properties separately. Event-tree was used when quantifying severity. The numerical value of risk was obtained. Lastly, an application example of such method was introduced to descript the implementing process of this method.

关 键 词：风险评价 危险源 事件树 风险管理 里森模型 

分 类 号：X913[环境科学与工程—安全科学]