汾渭和华北平原带地震发生的非稳态泊松过程与中长期概率预测  

NONSTATIONARY POISSON PROCESS OF EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCE AND RESEARCHES OF LONG-AND MEDIUM-TERM PROBABILISTIC EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

作　　者：傅征祥[1] 粟生平[1] 王晓青[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家地震局分析预报中心

出　　处：《华南地震》1998年第1期35-39,共5页South China Journal of Seismology

摘　　要：在描述事件非稳态泊松过程基本统计特征的基础上，将非稳态泊松过程应用在华北地震区汾渭带和华北平原地震带的中长期地震预测研究中。研究表明，假定未来几百年间，汾渭带和华北带的强震（Ｍ≥７０）活动将重现上一次地震轮回的非稳态泊松时间过程，那么，在２０１０年前发生一次７级地震的累计概率分别为０２６（不确定性范围为００６～０５０）和００４（不确定性范围为０００～０１３）。它们明显地低于按稳态泊松过程得到的发生概率。This paper describes the basic statitical characteristcs of nonstationary Poisson process of events and the differences between nonstationay Poisson and stationary Poisson process,and applies the nonstationary Poisson process to the researches on long-and medium-term probabilistic earthquake prediction in North China seismic area.Supposing that the nonstationary Poisson time process of strong earthquake ( M ≥7 0), in the last seismic cycle for the Linfeng and North China Plain seismic zone in North China seismic area would recur in the coming several hundreds years,the cumulative probability of a strong earthquake ( M ≥7 0) occurence in the two zone should respectively be 2 6 (uncertain range:0 06～0 50) and 0 04( uncertain range: 0 06～0 05) before 2010,which are obviously less than that calculated based on the stationary Poisson process.

关 键 词：地震预报 概率预测 华北地震区 中长期预测 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]