内生周期、外生冲击对中国经济增速的影响——兼论2009年经济增长“保8%”目标的实现  

Effect on China's Economy Increasement Speed by the Endogenous Cycle and Exogenous Impact

作　　者：吕楠 王涛[2] 

机构地区：[1]中央局世界所,北京100032 [2]国家工业和信息化部电信研究院,北京100037

出　　处：《经济与管理》2009年第4期10-14,19,共6页Economy and Management

摘　　要：由美国次贷危机引发的全球金融风暴对中国经济产生了较大的影响,内生的中周期下行调整使中国经济增速明显下滑,而外生冲击只是使中国GDP增速下滑加快,并在周期内改变"衰退—萧条—复苏—繁荣"各阶段持续时间配比、加速经济体自组运行中的衰退过程,使经济衰退期偏短,萧条期提前到来。根据近几年三大需求对GDP增长的贡献率和一系列扩张性政策的实施,中国经济增速"保8%"目标是可以实现的。The global financing storm aroused by the America＇s secondary loan crisis affects Chinese economy a lot. The downward regulation of the middle of endogenous cycle makes China＇s economy increasement speed fall apparently. But the financing crisis quicken the fall of increasement speed of China＇s GDP, and change the time propertion of each stages, which include decline, bleak, recovery and prosperous, quicken the decline process, make the decline process shorten and prosperous process come in advance. According to the functions of contribution rate of three demands to GDP increasement and promoting economy and a series of expanding policies, the aim of China＇s 8% economy increasement rate is can be realized.

关 键 词：内生周期 外生冲击 经济增长 

分 类 号：F037.1[经济管理—政治经济学]