银行业发展与中国宏观经济波动:理论及实证  

Banking Development and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in China:Theory and Empirics

作　　者：骆振心[1] 杜亚斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学经济学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2009年第1期65-71,共7页Modern Economic Science

摘　　要：本文主要考察我国银行业发展在各种冲击引发宏观经济波动传导过程中所起的作用。在构建相应的理论模型揭示其影响机制后,本文采用我国宏观年度数据进行实证检验。结果显示:在我国的经济运行过程中,银行业发展在货币冲击引发宏观经济波动的传导过程中确实产生了抵消效应;而银行业发展在实际部门的冲击引发我国宏观经济波动的传导过程中未产生明显的放大效应。This paper mainly investigates the function of bank industry development performance in the spreading of economic shocks to the output fluctuations in China.We develop a theoretical model to demonstrate the mechanics and then make an empirical test with annual macroeconomic data.We find that well-developed commercial banks have an offsetting effect in the spreading of monetary shocks to the macroeconomic fluctuations,but weak evidence shows well-developed banks have a progressive effect in the spreading of real estate shocks to the macroeconomic fluctuations.

关 键 词：银行业发展 宏观经济波动 放大效应 抵消效应 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学] F124F224