中日货币流动性传染的实证分析  

Empirical Analysis on Monetary Liquidity Spillover between China and Japan

作　　者：庞晓波[1] 梁风波[1] 李艳会[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《现代日本经济》2009年第3期16-20,共5页Contemporary Economy OF Japan

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"金融体制变迁中经济稳定与和谐发展条件识别和风险预警"(06JJD790012)

摘　　要：随着中日两国经济交流与合作的深度和广度扩展,两国货币流动性之间呈现出一种传染。在分析M-F模型的基础上,运用计量方法进行实证检验发现,日本的流动性冲击会对中国的货币量及物价产生影响,中国货币流动性受日本影响显著。为此,中国的流动性治理应关注国际流动性变化,降低人民币升值预期,增强人民币汇率弹性,逐步推进人民币汇率形成机制的市场化。The expansion of economic cooperation between China and Japan exerts a spill - over effect on monetary liquidity of the two countries. This paper develops an econometric model basing on M - F model. The empirical results show that shocks on Japanese monetary liquidity Granger cause Chinese money supply and general prices, indicating a spill - over effect running from Japan to China. We argue that Chinese liquidity control should scrutinize the change of international monetary liquidity, reduce the expectation of RMB appreeiation, inerease the flexibility of RMB, and steadily improve the formation mechanism of RMB exchange rate.

关 键 词：货币流动性 F—M模型 流动性输出效应 协整检验 脉冲响应 方差分解 

分 类 号：F823.313[经济管理—财政学]