新的梅雨强度指数(IPRI)及其时空变化特征分析--以安徽省沿淮地区为例  

Analysis on the New Index of Plum Rains Intensity and Its Spatio-Temporal Characteristics: A Case Study on the Reaches of the Region Along Huaihe River in Anhui Province

作　　者：郁家成[1] 黄小燕[1] 郁阳[2] 郭秀云[2] 董炳瑞[2] 陆太平[2] 王华[3] 

机构地区：[1]安徽农业大学资源与环境学院,合肥230036 [2]安徽省气象局,合肥230061 [3]安徽省民政厅,合肥230061

出　　处：《中国农业科学》2009年第4期1325-1330,共6页Scientia Agricultura Sinica

基　　金：国家科技部软科学研究计划(2007GXS3D087);淮河流域气象开放研究基金项目(HRM200805)

摘　　要：【目的】探索新的简便而实用的梅雨强度指数(IPRI)的计算公式,并以安徽省沿淮地区为例分析梅雨强度的时空变化特征。【方法】在对本地区梅雨期降水基本特征进行分析的基础上,利用11个地面气象站1952-2004年的降水资料计算梅雨强度指数,并依据多年的梅雨强度指数和洪涝资料进行了相关回归分析。【结果】提出了新的简便而实用的梅雨强度指数(IPRI),并根据IPRI分析发现了安徽沿淮地区历年梅强指数呈波动上升趋势,洪涝面积与梅强指数之间存在极显著的回归关系。【结论】研究结果可用于沿淮地区洪涝灾害分析、评估和鉴定以及农业避洪。【Objective】 In order to explore new simple and practical index of plum rains intensity （IPRI ） calculating formula, the areas along the Huaihe river in Anhui Province were used as an example, and the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of plum rains intensity were analyzed. 【Method】 Based on the analysis of the basic characteristics of the plum rains spell precipitation in the regions along the Huaihe River in Anhui Province, using the eleven stations precipitation data from 1952 to 2004, and the correlation and regression analysis were made on the data of plum rains intensity index and flood. 【Result】 The spatio-temporal variations of the characteristics of plum rains were found, and the correlativity of plum rains intensity index and flood was discovered.【Conclusion】 The finding has provided a theoretical basis for the analysis, assessment and identification of flooding disasters and the development of flood-evading agriculture in the region along Huaihe River.

关 键 词：梅雨强度指数 时空变化 特征分析 安徽省沿淮地区 

分 类 号：S161[农业科学—农业气象学]