论美国财政部对其贸易国操纵汇率的认定在汇率影响上的有效性  

Effectiveness of Exchange Rate Behaviors of US Treasury's Judgment on Trade Partners' Exchange Rate Manipulation

作　　者：靳玉英[1] 万超[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学国际工商管理学院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2009年第4期25-31,共7页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“汇率行为的复杂性研究”(项目号:70471082);国家社会科学基金项目“经济全球化下金融危机国际传染性及对中国的政策含义研究”(项目号:05CJL023);教育部2005年“新世纪优秀人才支持计划”的阶段性成果

摘　　要：在现行货币体系下,缺乏超国家力量判断与监管单个国家汇率定价的合理性,评判一国汇率合理与否并对其进行干预的外来力量主要来自美国等发达国家。本文以美国财政部出具的《关于国际经济和汇率政策向国会提交的报告》为基础,考察作为单个国家美国对他国汇率定价合理性的判断与调整要求是否对他国汇率具有影响力。通过统计观察和计量分析,本文发现,美国对他国汇率操纵的指称未能有效影响被指称国的汇率。因此,本文提出,仅靠单个国家对他国汇率与国际收支的判断与调整要求无法解决全球范围内普遍存在的汇率错位和国际收支失衡问题,在此背景下,国际经济政策协调将更加迫切和有效。Due to lack of a super-national power to judge and supervise over the exchange rates of individual countries in the present international monetary system, the judgment of the properness of a country＇ s exchange rate level and the underlying intervention are usually made by developed countries, especially by the United States. Building on the basis of the US Treasury＇ s ＂Report to Congress on International Economics and Exchange Rate Policies＂ , this paper aims to find out if the US judgment on properness of the exchange rate pricing or adjustment requirement has influenced the objective countries＇ exchange rate behavior. The statistical observation and econometric analysis of this paper come to a consistent conclusion that there is no apparent influence. Such a finding reveals that an individual country＇ s judgments on other country＇ s BOP status or adjustments requirements are not the very solution to globally spreading exchange rate misalignment and BOP disequilibrium. In this case, international economic policy cooperation is becoming more and more urgent and will be more effectiveness.

关 键 词：汇率操纵 国际货币体系 经常账户失衡 汇率行为 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]