双层嵌套多目标概率模型在珠江三角洲港口工程环境分析中的应用  

Application of Double Layer Nested Multi-objective Probability Model in Environmental Impact Analysis of Port Construction in Pearl River Delta

作　　者：韩凤亭[1] 谢波涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学工程学院,山东青岛266003

出　　处：《中国港湾建设》2009年第2期12-16,共5页China Harbour Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50679076);国家防汛抗旱总指挥部资助项目(20060120)

摘　　要：鉴于未来全球气候变暖、台风强度和频次有逐渐加剧的趋势,建港地区工程风险须得到重视。在分析了珠江三角洲所受台风灾害的基本类型后,采用双层嵌套多目标概率模式及复合极值分布模型(MCEVD)对珠三角的台风灾害及超强台风进行了预测,并将计算结果应用于港区最大风速、波高、排水等方面的设计。该模型能全面系统地反映台风致灾的整体机制,在港口工程环境分析中得到了较好的应用。As the global climate is changing to become warmer and the frequency and intensity of typhoon tend to increase gradually, engineering risks in port construction should be given significant attention. After the analysis of the types of disastrous typhoons in the Pearl River Delta, the double layer nested multi-objective probability model and multivariate compound extreme value distribution （MCEVD） are used to predict the typhoon-induced disasters and super typhoons. The predictions are then used in the design of maximum wind speed, wave height, drainage, and so on in port areas. The model can reflects the disaster-caused factors comprehensively and systematically and therefore the predictions have obtained good results.

关 键 词：台风 港口建设 双层嵌套概率模式 多维复合极值分布 超强台风 

分 类 号：U652.5[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]