FDI结构与中国产业内贸易发展水平的关系研究——以制造业21行业为例  

Research on the Relationship between FDI structure and the Trade Development in China's Industries——taking 21 Occupations in Manufacturing Industry as Examples

作　　者：程红莉[1] 谢蕾蕾[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学统计学院应用统计科学研究中心

出　　处：《统计教育》2009年第5期3-11,共9页Statistical education

摘　　要：本文运用产业内贸易系列指数对中国制造业部分行业的产业内贸易发展水平进行测度,并进一步将产业内贸易类型划分为水平型产业内贸易、上垂直型产业内贸易和下垂直型产业内贸易,分析产业内贸易的内在结构特征;运用FDI的行业结构以及利用外资方式的结构作为对FDI的结构度量;在此基础上,通过面板模型和回归模型,结合2002-2007年数据分析FDI结构是否促进了中国产业内贸易发展水平的提高。结论显示,我国制造业的产业内贸易程度有一定的提高,但是各产业的贸易模式并未发生显著变化;绝大部分行业的FDI比重有了显著提高,说明外资对我国制造业各行业的渗透进一步加深,这很可能是入世产生的效应;FDI一定程度上促进了产业内贸易程度的提高,但是主要促进了垂直型产业内贸易尤其是下垂直产业内贸易程度,不利于我国各产业的长远发展,也威胁到产业安全;FDI的实际利用方式对产业内贸易程度也存在一定的负面影响,独资化阻碍了水平型产业内贸易程度的提高。By trade indicators in the industry, the paper measures the trade development level of several occupations in manufacturing industry,classifies the instrustrial trade into horizontal type, upper-verticle type and down-verticle type, and analyzes the interior structural features of the trade in industries; measures the FDI structure by FDI＇ s industrial structure and foreign-fund structure;on this basis, by panel model and regression model and combined with the data from 2002 to 2007,it analyzes wheather the FDI structure promotes the increase of industrial trade develop- ment or not. Results show that the industrial trade degree in manufacturing industry has been increased, yet the trade model in the industries hasn＇ t been obviously changed ; the proportion of FDI in most industries has been obviously increased ,which indicates that foreign fund has deepened its influence to the industries, and this may results from China＇ s WTO entry ;in a certain degree, FDI promotes the trade degree in industries,but mainly in the vertical industries ,especially down-vertical industries. This is detrimental to the long-term development of the industry and threaten the industrial security. The actural use mode of FDI also has negative influence to the industrial trade de- gree and capitalization hinders the increase of trade degree in horizental-industries.

关 键 词：FDI 独资化 水平型产业内贸易 垂直型产业内贸易 

分 类 号：O661.1[理学—分析化学] F740[理学—化学]