青海省草地蝗虫发生面积预测模型研究  

Study on forecasting models of grasshopper occurrence area in Qinghai Province

作　　者：严应存[1] 李凤霞[1] 颜亮东[1] 宋理明 马宗泰 周秉荣[1] 张娟[1] 高素华[3] 

机构地区：[1]青海省气象科学研究所,青海西宁810001 [2]青海省海北牧业气象试验站,青海海北810200 [3]中国气象科学研究院,北京10008

出　　处：《草业科学》2009年第4期94-98,共5页Pratacultural Science

基　　金：中国气象局气象新技术推广资助项目(CMATG2007M08);国家科技部农业科技成果转化资金项目(2007GB24160443)

摘　　要：利用青海省1995-2006年蝗虫发生面积与相关大气环流特征量、气候资料,分析了不同气候因子与蝗虫发生面积之间的关系,建立了青海省蝗虫发生面积省、州、县级多元回归预测模型。研究表明,显著影响青海省蝗虫发生面积的环流指数特征量为副高强度指数和极涡面积、极涡强度指数。副高强度指数强,青海省蝗虫发生面积大;极涡面积大、极涡强度指数强,蝗虫发生面积小。在蝗虫孵化期,降水量的分布和数量对其发生面积产生显著的促进或抑制作用。温度对蝗虫发生面积的影响各地基本一致,对蝗虫产卵、越冬、孵化均呈显著正相关,表明温度偏低是制约蝗虫爆发的主导因素。蝗虫产卵、孵化期空气湿度低有利于蝗灾的爆发。用预测模型对2007年蝗虫发生面积进行逐级试报,效果较好,这为青海省蝗灾的防治工作提供了科学的决策依据。Grasshopper occurrence area, atmospheric circulation characteristics and climate data in Qinghai Province from 1995 to 2006 were collected to analyze the relationship between climate conditions and grasshopper occurrence area, and the multiple regression prediction models of grasshopper occurrence area were built at province, prefecture and county levels. The result showed that subtropical anticyclone intensity index, vortex intensity area and index impacted remarkably on grasshopper occurrence area. The grasshopper occurrence area was increased along with the subtropical anticyclone intensity index. However, it was decreased along with the vortex intensity area and vortex intensity index. During hatching period of grasshopper, the precipitation performed an important role. The relationship between grasshopper occurrence area and temperature was positive remarkably. The temperature showed the positive impact on spawning, winter-overing and incubation of grasshopper and lower temperature was the critical factor to inhibit the outbreak of grasshopper. Low air humidity during hatching period was helpful to the outbreak. The models were used to forecast the grasshopper occurrence in 2007 and the result was satisfied and this would serve as a scientific basis for prevention and control of grasshopper disaster in Qinghai Province.

关 键 词：草地蝗虫 发生面积 预测模型 

分 类 号：S812.6[农业科学—草业科学]