环境与经济综合核算的系统动力学模型研究  

The System Dynamics Model for the Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting

作　　者：蔡林[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学社会与人口学院,北京100872

出　　处：《生态经济》2009年第5期67-71,共5页Ecological Economy

摘　　要：实施可持续发展战略,落实科学发展观,正确地评价经济增长状况至关重要;而环境与经济综合核算(绿色GDP核算)就是最主要的评价经济增长真实状况的手段之一。然而,目前的绿色GDP核算方式是不完整的、静态的、事后核算和分项计算的,对转变经济增长方式的指导意义有限。为此,文章首次提出了系统动力学绿色GDP核算方法,利用人口、资本、生态环境和经济核算4大子模块,将复杂的绿色GDP核算内容,统一在一个动态的、预测型的、具有反馈特征的模型之中;为经济增长方式的调整提供了充分的信息和调节手段。模型可以作为一个核算和政策模拟平台,通过不断调整、完善而长期使用。To correctly evaluating the quantity and quality of economic growth is the key of implementing the strategy of sustainable development and putting the Scientific Outlook on Development into practice, and the Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting（the Green GDP Accounting--GGDP Accounting） is one of the most important evaluation means at present. However, the current GGDP accounting is incomplete, static, sporadic, unalterable, and unspecific to advise to change the mode of economic growth. The system dynamics Green GDP （SDGGDP） accounting method is proposed for the first time, which contains 4 major sub-modules-population, capital, eco-environment and economic accounting, and combines all the complex factors into one dynamic, forecast-based model with feedback competence for the adjustment and improvement of the economic growth approaches to provide sufficient information and control means. Moreover, SDGGDP accounting model can be used as a long-term accounting and policy simulation platform through continuous adding and revising according to the conditions and circumstances.

关 键 词：绿色GDP 科学发展观 可持续发展 系统动力学 环境经济核算 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济] N941.3[自然科学总论—系统科学]