数值预报产品动力-统计释用方法与寒潮预报  

A Technique of Dynamic Statistics Interpretation of NWP and Cold Wave Prediction

作　　者：陈静 桑志勤 

机构地区：[1]成都中心气象台

出　　处：《气象》1998年第2期34-38,共5页Meteorological Monthly

摘　　要：从气温变化的物理过程出发，设计了一种数值预报产品的动力－统计释用方法，开发了一套四川盆地寒潮入侵时间和降温幅度的释用方案，并利用ＥＣＭＷＦ产品建立四川盆地寒潮自动预报系统，滚动预报未来１～６日内的寒潮过程。１９９５～１９９７年投入中短期业务运行，取得了显著效果。ased on the physical process of temperature variation, a technique of dynamic statistics interpretation of NWP products was suggested. The interpretation scheme about the invading time and descending temperature of cold wave over Sichuan basin was developed. By use of ECMWF products, the automatic forecasting system of cold wave was built and it can be rulled to forecast the cold air in the coming one to six days. The operational forecast was conducted in 1995 and the effective result was obtained.

关 键 词：数值预报产品 动力-统计释用 寒潮预后 

分 类 号：S426[农业科学—植物保护]