基于概率组合的水库洪水分期调度研究  

Study on Reservoir Stage Operation Based on Probability Combination

作　　者：莫崇勋[1] 孙桂凯[1] 刘方贵[1] 

机构地区：[1]广西大学土木建筑工程学院,南宁530004

出　　处：《长江科学院院报》2009年第5期22-24,30,共4页Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute

基　　金：广西教育厅科研资助项目(200708LX099);广西大学科研基金项目(X071096;X081092)

摘　　要：针对当前水库洪水分期调度方法存在的问题,提出基于概率组合的水库洪水分期调度方法,具体给出水库防洪标准的等价表达式,并探讨在不降低水库防洪标准的前提下确定水库分期汛限水位。一水库分三期调度的实例分析结果表明,水库汛末汛限水位最高可提高1.8 m,从而将增加水库综合效益。该方法可为指导已建水库工程的防洪优化调度提供参考。In order to overcome the problem existing in reservoir stage operation at present, a new method was proposed on the basis of probability combination principle in probability theory, the equivalent formulation of the reservoir flood control standard was given specifically, and the flood control water level of each stage was determined by the condition that the reservoir flood control standard is not reduced. Analyzed and calculated results obtained by the example adopting 3-stage regulating flood indicate that the water level for flood control in the end of the flood season can be raised by 1.80 m most greatly, as a result, the multipurpose effectiveness of the reservoir will be increased greatly. The method can provide the reference for flood control optimal operation of the built reservoir.

关 键 词：洪水分期 防洪标准 概率组合 汛限水位 

分 类 号：TV697.13[水利工程—水利水电工程]